Press Contact: Tom Z. Collina, Research Director, 202-463-8270 x104
See Table 1: U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Under New START
The United States will retain up to 420 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 60 nuclear-capable bombers, and 240 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia, the Obama administration announced May 13, 2010.[i] This new force structure was provided to the Senate as part of the materials transmitted with New START for ratification. In addition, as part of the administration’s effort to show progress on disarmament at the May review conference of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the Department of State announced April 27 that the United States had 1,968 “operationally deployed” warheads at the end of 2009,[ii] and the Pentagon announced May 3 that as of last Sept. 30, the U.S. nuclear stockpile stood at 5,113 warheads.[iii]
Although New START limits were announced in March, the Pentagon had not made clear how it would distribute its ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers to make up a treaty-compliant force of 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems. A White House document transmitted with New START May 13 provides further details:
• The United States currently has 450 ICBM silos. Under the “baseline plan,” the country will retain up to 420 deployed Minuteman III ICBMs, all with a single warhead.
• The United States currently has 94 deployable nuclear-capable bombers. Some will be converted to conventional-only bombers (not accountable under New START), and up to 60 nuclear-capable bombers will be retained.
• The United States currently has 14 strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs), all of which will be retained. The United States will reduce the number of SLBM launch tubes from 24 to 20 per SSBN and deploy no more than 240 SLBMs at any time.
This planned force structure under New START reduces deployed ICBMs by 30 from current levels, reduces nuclear-capable bombers by 34, and reduces SLBMs from a current force of 288 to 240. (The 14 Trident submarines contain 24 missile launch tubes each, or 336 tubes total. Two submarines are in dry dock at any given time with no missiles aboard, for a total of 288 missiles currently deployed.) The biggest surprise may be the large number of bombers being retained, given that they are not on alert or loaded with weapons in peacetime and thus are widely considered the least significant leg of the nuclear triad. One factor in this decision may have been the New START counting rule that allows each bomber to be counted as “one” deployed warhead, even though bombers can carry up to 20 nuclear weapons.
Compared to current deployments, New START would reduce deployed U.S. delivery vehicles by 18 percent and warheads by 11 percent, counting each bomber as one warhead. Compared to treaty limits set by the 1991 START I and 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), New START would reduce deployed U.S. delivery vehicles by 50 percent and accountable warheads by 30 percent. Adding up the planned deployments for delivery systems under New START totals 720, which is 20 above the treaty’s cumulative limit. Because the treaty allows for 800 deployed and nondeployed launchers, however, removing 20 delivery systems from deployment and placing them under maintenance would allow the United States to meet the limits. Under the treaty, the new force structure does not have to be reached until seven years after the pact’s entry into force. As strategic forces are reduced under the treaty, those that remain would be upgraded. Over the next decade, the administration plans to invest $180 billion to modernize the nuclear weapons complex and nuclear delivery systems.
Table 1: U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces Under New START
This table shows how the deployed U.S. strategic nuclear stockpile will decline between 2010 and 2017, when reductions under New START would be completed, assuming the treaty takes effect this year. Current delivery vehicle numbers and the Pentagon’s plan for reductions under New START were announced May 13. Warhead numbers as of 2009 were announced by the Department of State April 27. The planned 720 deployed delivery vehicles under New START will need to be reduced to 700 by, for example, moving 20 to nondeployed status to comply with the treaty limit. Under New START, each bomber is counted as one warhead, but in fact can carry up to 20. On May 3, the Pentagon, revealing exact stockpile numbers for the first time, said that as of 2009, the United States had a stockpile of 5,113 strategic and tactical warheads. That number includes active and inactive weapons, but does not include an estimated 4,500 warheads that have been retired and are awaiting dismantlement.
Shaded warhead numbers are estimates based on the known number of deployed delivery vehicles, the known total number of deployed warheads, and typical warhead loadings.
|
|
2010 |
2017 |
|
Delivery Vehicles
|
Warheads
|
Delivery Vehicles
|
Warheads
|
|
ICBMs
|
|
Minuteman III
|
450
|
500
|
420
|
420
|
|
SLBMs
|
|
Trident II D5
|
336
|
1,152
|
240
|
1,070
|
|
Strategic Bombers
|
|
B-52H
|
76
|
316
|
42
|
60
|
|
B-2A
|
18
|
18
|
|
Total Deployed
|
880
|
1,968
|
720
|
1,550
|
|
Total Stockpile
|
|
5,113
|
|
[i] White House Fact Sheet, May 13, 2010. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/New%20START%20section%201251%20fact%20sheet.pdf
[ii] State Department Fact Sheet, April 27, 2010. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/scp/fs/2010/141285.htm
[iii] Defense Department Fact Sheet, May 3, 2010. http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-05-03_Fact_Sheet_US_Nuclear_Transparency__FINAL_w_Date.pdf
